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Why The Nook Misses The Point
It's a different world, and one that can't be conquered without taking some risks along the way. The marketers that don't stand behind their decisions, even in the absence of metrics, while wind up being left behind...
There are many ways to estimate (note I don't use the misleading term measure) the effectiveness of most media channels. Online appears the most accountable yet in reality it suffers from many of the same issues as other channels.
Social media activity has to find a way of justifying itself. Remember that all these companies running social sites have huge values placed on them precisely because of the value they offer to advertisers. If advertisers can't "see" the value then they're not going to invest - certainly not at levels which would value companies at $bns. In short, Social Media is going to have to come up with something meaningful.
You ask "How can you determine the ROI on a TV commercial?" - in truth you can estimate the impact of ads at a broad level relatively easily. New opportunities presented by Google and others will improve this situation further (see http://marketing-works.blogspot.com/2007/10/who...), Measures of engagement and interest will only be of use once the case is proved that they increase shareholder value more efficiently than other channels.
No, thank you for reading (and commenting). I agree that risks have to be taken to make any real progress.
@John
I agree with you that social media needs a justification in terms of launching a campaign, but my point was that because it isn't as measurable as standard online fare, people are scared to use it. And for TV ads, I know you can estimate the effectiveness, but it's just that, an estimate. Ballparking things is a useful tactic, but online you can measure the direct effectiveness of a particular piece of copy or banner ad in detail that's not available in other mediums. I agree we need to figure out a way to measure something, but we need to be flexible and insightful in setting our standards.
However, much of traditional media is for branding purposes.
I dare say that at times, conversation marketing via social media is the measurement not the marketing. Ok, I gotta go write a piece about that.